| A | |
|---|---|
| 1 | |
| 2 | |
| 3 | |
| 4 | |
| 5 | |
| 6 | |
| 7 | |
| 8 |
| A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Market Data | ||||||||||||
| 2 | Colour key: | Company filing | Online / market | Computed | Analyst input | ||||||||
| 3 | |||||||||||||
| 4 | A — CURRENT MARKET METRICS | ||||||||||||
| 5 | Analysis Date | Enter today's date — carried into the report header | |||||||||||
| 6 | Data Source | e.g. "Yahoo Finance" | "Bloomberg" | "Broker platform" | |||||||||||
| 7 | |||||||||||||
| 8 | Current Stock Price | 172.97 | $ | Per share, as of Analysis Date | |||||||||
| 9 | 52-Week High | $ | |||||||||||
| 10 | 52-Week Low | $ | |||||||||||
| 11 | Shares Outstanding | 826.10 | M shares | From 10-K cover page or latest quarterly filing | |||||||||
| 12 | |||||||||||||
| 13 | Market Capitalization | 142,890.52 | $M | ||||||||||
| 14 | Net Debt | 2,446.10 | $M | From 10-K balance sheet (Total Debt − Cash) | |||||||||
| 15 | Enterprise Value | 145,336.62 | $M | ||||||||||
| 16 | |||||||||||||
| 17 | EV / LTM EBITDA | 18.47 | × | [computed by recalc.py from EV ÷ LTM EBITDA in Data] | |||||||||
| 18 | P / LTM EPS (P/E) | 33.01 | × | [computed by recalc.py from Price ÷ latest EPS] | |||||||||
| 19 | LTM FCF per Share | 4.15 | $ | [computed by recalc.py] | |||||||||
| 20 | FCF Yield | 0.02 | % | [computed by recalc.py] | |||||||||
| 21 | Dividend Yield | 0.02 | % | [computed by recalc.py] | |||||||||
| 22 | |||||||||||||
| 23 | B — COST OF CAPITAL (WACC INPUTS) | ||||||||||||
| 24 | Risk-Free Rate (10Y UST) | 0.0447 | % | Enter as decimal (e.g. 4.46% → 0.0446) | Source: US Treasury | |||||||||
| 25 | Equity Risk Premium (ERP) | 0.0418 | % | Enter as decimal | Source: Damodaran (updated Jan each year) | |||||||||
| 26 | Beta (Levered) | 1.1100 | × | 5-year monthly vs. S&P 500 | Source: Yahoo Finance / Macrotrends | |||||||||
| 27 | Size Premium | 0 | % | Usually 0 for large-cap companies | Source: Duff & Phelps | |||||||||
| 28 | Company-Specific Risk Premium | 0.0225 | % | Your call: add for single-commodity risk, country risk, etc. | |||||||||
| 29 | Cost of Equity (Ke) | 0.12 | % | ||||||||||
| 30 | |||||||||||||
| 31 | Pre-Tax Cost of Debt (Kd) | 0.0641 | % | Enter as decimal | From 10-K: interest expense ÷ avg gross debt | |||||||||
| 32 | Marginal Tax Rate | 0.3825 | % | Enter as decimal | Effective tax rate from latest annual filing | |||||||||
| 33 | After-Tax Cost of Debt | 0.04 | % | ||||||||||
| 34 | |||||||||||||
| 35 | Debt / Total Capital (market weights) | 0.0168 | % | Enter as decimal | = Total Debt ÷ (Market Cap + Total Debt) | |||||||||
| 36 | Equity / Total Capital | 0.98 | % | ||||||||||
| 37 | WACC | 0.11 | % | ||||||||||
| 38 | |||||||||||||
| 39 | C — HISTORICAL SHARE PRICES (fiscal year-end) | ||||||||||||
| 40 | Fiscal Year | FY2015 | FY2016 | FY2017 | FY2018 | FY2019 | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | |
| 41 | End-of-Year Price ($) | ||||||||||||
| 42 | Source: Yahoo Finance (historical prices) → select fiscal year-end closing price | ||||||||||||
| 43 | |||||||||||||
| 44 | D — PEER VALUATION MULTIPLES (market-sourced) | ||||||||||||
| 45 | Metric | FCX | TECK | HBM | CMMC | ||||||||
| 46 | EV / EBITDA (×) | 11.0 | 10.3 | 7.8 | 6.8 | ||||||||
| 47 | P / E (×) | 41.7 | 30.5 | 17.8 | 23.4 | ||||||||
| 48 | FCF Yield (%) | 1.2 | -0.9 | 2.4 | 2.3 | ||||||||
| 49 |
| A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | O | P | Q | R | S | T | U | V | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Colour key: | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Ticker | SCCO | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Company Name | Southern Copper Corporation | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Sector / Industry | Metals & Mining — Copper | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Fiscal Year End | 1.11 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Currency | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Current Share Price | 172.97 | 142,890.50 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | Report Date | 2026-06-07 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | Source (10-K filing date) | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | INCOME STATEMENT ($M) | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 13 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Q1'24 | Q2'24 | Q3'24 | Q4'24 | Q1'25 | Q2'25 | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | ||
| 14 | Revenue | 5,046 | 5,380 | 6,655 | 7,097 | 7,286 | 7,985 | 10,934.10 | 10,047.90 | 9,895.80 | 11,433.40 | 13,420 | 2,599.80 | 3,118.30 | 2,930.90 | 2,784.40 | 3,121.90 | 3,051 | 3,377.30 | 3,869.80 | 4,251.40 | |
| 15 | Cost of Goods Sold | 2,928 | 3,034 | 3,253 | 3,409 | 3,607 | 3,930 | 3,894.40 | 4,649.10 | 4,687.70 | 4,841.40 | 5,359.20 | 1,157.60 | 1,248.90 | 1,223.10 | 1,211.80 | 1,319.20 | 1,211.70 | 1,356.80 | 1,471.50 | 1,498.80 | |
| 16 | Gross Profit | 2,118 | 2,346 | 3,402 | 3,688 | 3,679 | 4,055 | 7,039.70 | 5,398.80 | 5,208.10 | 6,592 | 8,060.80 | 1,442.20 | 1,869.40 | 1,707.80 | 1,572.60 | 1,802.70 | 1,839.30 | 2,020.50 | 2,398.30 | 2,752.60 | |
| 17 | SG&A | 91 | 103 | 132 | 126 | 125.20 | 125 | 127.20 | 130.50 | 137.80 | 30.80 | 33.90 | 31.20 | 34.50 | 31.70 | 32.50 | 33.70 | 39.90 | 35.80 | |||
| 18 | R&D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||
| 19 | Total OpEx (excl. COGS) | CLEARED 2026-06-06: SCCO prints no OpEx-excl-COGS subtotal (extractor NOT_FOUND); legacy values had mixed definitions across years | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 20 | EBITDA | 1,925 | 2,211 | 3,290 | 3,556 | 3,517 | 3,896 | 6,871.10 | 5,232.10 | 5,025.90 | 6,400.60 | 7,870.10 | 1,398.70 | 1,816.90 | 1,663.40 | 1,521.60 | 1,759.30 | 1,793.20 | 1,976.60 | 2,341.10 | 2,706.10 | |
| 21 | D&A | 511 | 647 | 671 | 675 | 764 | 775 | 806 | 796.30 | 833.60 | 845.90 | 868.40 | 209 | 209.60 | 213.10 | 214.20 | 223.80 | 206.20 | 207.80 | 230.70 | 225.70 | |
| 22 | EBIT (Operating Income) | 1,414 | 1,564 | 2,619 | 2,881 | 2,753 | 3,121 | 6,065.10 | 4,435.80 | 4,192.30 | 5,554.70 | 7,001.70 | 1,189.70 | 1,607.30 | 1,450.30 | 1,307.40 | 1,535.50 | 1,587 | 1,768.80 | 2,110.40 | 2,480.40 | |
| 23 | Interest Expense | 357 | 361 | 373 | 393 | 387.90 | 387.10 | 376.30 | 376.50 | 416.70 | 94.20 | 94.10 | 94.10 | 94.20 | 102.30 | 105.60 | 104.30 | 104.40 | 104.50 | |||
| 24 | Pre-Tax Income | 2,303 | 2,589 | 2,427 | 2,746 | 5,696.80 | 4,247.80 | 3,955.80 | 5,357.40 | 6,784.30 | 1,155.50 | 1,530.60 | 1,426.70 | 1,244.50 | 1,478.50 | 1,543.90 | 1,724.10 | 2,037.70 | 2,444.10 | |||
| 25 | Tax Expense | 1,574 | 1,046 | 941 | 1,176 | 2,299.20 | 1,596.10 | 1,518.90 | 1,975.30 | 2,470.10 | 423.40 | 578.80 | 526.40 | 446.70 | 532.80 | 576 | 619.70 | 741.70 | 891 | |||
| 26 | Net Income | 736 | 777 | 729 | 1,543 | 1,486 | 1,570 | 3,397.10 | 2,638.50 | 2,425.20 | 3,376.80 | 4,334.90 | 736 | 950.20 | 896.70 | 793.90 | 945.90 | 973.40 | 1,107.60 | 1,307.90 | 1,576.90 | |
| 27 | Diluted EPS | 0.94 | 2.00 | 1.92 | 2.03 | 4.39 | 3.41 | 3.05 | 4.21 | 5.24 | 0.95 | 1.22 | 1.15 | 0.89 | 1.19 | 1.21 | 1.35 | 1.53 | 1.92 | |||
| 28 | Diluted Shares Out. (M) | 803.0 | 782.0 | 781.0 | 781.0 | 781.0 | 781.0 | 773.1 | 773.1 | 795.3 | 802.9 | 826.6 | 826.10 | 773.1 | 777.9 | 782.9 | 792.5 | 822.7 | 821.70 | |||
| 29 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| 30 | BALANCE SHEET ($M) | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 31 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Q1'24 | Q2'24 | Q3'24 | Q4'24 | Q1'25 | Q2'25 | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | ||
| 32 | Total Cash & Equivalents | 275 | 546 | 1,005 | 845 | 1,925 | 2,184 | 3,002 | 2,069.70 | 1,151.50 | 3,258.10 | 4,304.60 | 1,252.20 | 1,875.30 | 2,654.80 | 3,258.10 | 4,116.30 | 3,334.90 | 3,949.60 | 4,304.60 | 4,915.40 | |
| 33 | Short-term Debt | 0 | 0 | 400 | 0 | 299.70 | 0 | 0 | 499.80 | 0 | 499.50 | 499.60 | 499.80 | 500 | 499.80 | 499.80 | 0 | |||||
| 34 | Long-term Debt | 5,952 | 5,954 | 5,957 | 5,960 | 6,541 | 6,544 | 6,247.90 | 6,251 | 6,254.60 | 5,758.50 | 6,750.70 | 6,255.50 | 5,757 | 5,757.80 | 5,758.50 | 6,747 | 6,748.20 | 6,749.40 | 6,750.70 | 6,751.90 | |
| 35 | Total Debt | 5,952 | 5,954 | 5,957 | 5,960 | 6,941 | 6,544 | 6,547.60 | 6,251 | 6,254.60 | 6,258.30 | 6,750.70 | 6,255.50 | 6,256.50 | 6,257.40 | 6,258.30 | 7,247 | 7,248 | 7,249.20 | 6,750.70 | 6,751.90 | |
| 36 | Net Debt | 5,677 | 5,408 | 4,952 | 5,115 | 5,016 | 4,360 | 3,545.60 | 4,181.30 | 5,103.10 | 3,000.20 | 2,446.10 | 5,003.30 | 4,381.20 | 3,602.60 | 3,000.20 | 3,130.70 | 3,913.10 | 3,299.60 | 2,446.10 | 1,836.50 | |
| 37 | Total Current Assets | 2,484 | 2,566 | 3,170 | 3,180 | 4,185 | 4,815 | 6,139.60 | 5,188 | 4,429.50 | 6,174.30 | 8,352.50 | 4,440.80 | 5,333.70 | 5,926.40 | 6,174.30 | 7,220 | 7,002.40 | 7,669.60 | 8,352.50 | 8,717 | |
| 38 | Total Current Liabilities | 920 | 999 | 1,168 | 1,216 | 1,477 | 1,385 | 2,250 | 1,236 | 1,388.50 | 2,248.10 | 2,145.10 | 1,340 | 1,898.20 | 2,139.40 | 2,248.10 | 1,944.40 | 1,329 | 1,698 | 2,145.10 | 1,992.40 | |
| 39 | Total Assets | 12,593 | 13,234 | 13,780 | 14,288 | 16,407 | 16,947 | 18,297.60 | 17,277 | 16,725.30 | 18,713.50 | 21,381.40 | 16,789.30 | 17,777.70 | 18,415.50 | 18,713.50 | 19,791.20 | 19,554.70 | 20,331.80 | 21,381.40 | 21,929.90 | |
| 40 | Total Liabilities | 7,235 | 7,303 | 7,570 | 7,613 | 9,543 | 9,671 | 10,089.80 | 9,130.80 | 9,244.10 | 9,475.30 | 10,276.50 | 9,247.60 | 9,285.20 | 9,494.50 | 9,541.90 | 10,222.90 | 9,569.90 | 9,881.90 | 10,343.30 | 10,142.30 | |
| 41 | Shareholders' Equity | 5,299 | 5,871 | 6,149 | 6,613 | 6,858 | 7,224.80 | 8,149.20 | 8,084.20 | 7,418.10 | 9,171.60 | 11,038.10 | AUDIT CYCLE 2: EQUITY FY2020: parent-only per SCCO 10k 2020.pdf p.173 (audit A276; was 7,276.0 total incl. NCI) | 7,541.70 | 8,492.50 | 8,921 | 9,171.60 | 9,568.30 | 9,984.80 | 10,449.90 | 11,038.10 | 11,787.60 |
| 42 | Minority Interest | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 6 | 51.20 | 58.60 | 62 | 63.10 | 66.60 | 66.80 | AUDIT CYCLE 2: MINORITY FY2020: companion to equity fix, same page | 64.20 | 67.70 | 68.40 | 66.60 | 68.40 | 68.60 | 67 | 66.80 | 71.80 |
| 43 | Intangible Assets & Goodwill | 155 | 154 | 153 | 148 | 148 | 143 | 138.10 | 135 | 130.20 | 124.60 | 122.40 | 128.80 | 127.30 | 125.40 | 124.60 | 122.60 | 121.70 | 120.90 | 122.40 | 122.60 | |
| 44 | PP&E | 8,263 | 8,767 | 9,100 | 9,404 | 9,371 | 9,459 | 9,464.40 | 9,597 | 9,782.90 | 9,883.30 | 10,272.20 | 9,783.20 | 9,871.50 | 9,927.10 | 9,883.30 | 9,934.60 | 9,915 | 10,002.10 | 10,272.20 | 10,468.10 | |
| 45 | Receivables | 551 | 669 | 976 | 973 | 912 | 1,068.90 | 1,358.70 | 1,394.10 | 1,141.10 | 1,189.60 | 1,951.20 | AUDIT CYCLE 2: RECEIVABLES FY2020: trade-only per same balance sheet (audit A230; was 1,137.0 incl. other receivables) | 1,293.90 | 1,622.30 | 1,530.20 | 1,189.60 | 1,548.10 | 1,557.70 | 1,719.40 | 1,951.20 | 2,016.30 |
| 46 | Payables | 647 | 584 | 660 | 673 | 598 | 595 | 591.90 | 658 | 652.60 | 615.20 | 861.50 | 748.50 | 647.20 | 609.30 | 615.20 | 684.40 | 647.20 | 739.20 | 861.50 | 906 | |
| 47 | Inventory | 857 | 1,010 | 1,042 | 1,033 | 1,069 | 950 | 972.90 | 1,014 | 1,016.90 | 1,048.90 | 1,058.10 | 1,014.40 | 1,017.20 | 990.50 | 1,048.90 | 966.10 | 1,005.20 | 1,031.30 | 1,058.10 | 959.20 | |
| 48 | Retained Earnings | 4,812 | 5,455 | 5,726 | 6,187 | 6,436 | 6,846 | 7,769.70 | 7,702 | 7,033.50 | 6,839.60 | 5,797.20 | 7,156.70 | 7,180.90 | 7,142.80 | 6,839.60 | 6,682.80 | 6,459.40 | 6,116 | 5,797.20 | 5,292.70 | |
| 49 | CASH FLOW STATEMENT ($M) | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 50 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Q1'24 | Q2'24 | Q3'24 | Q4'24 | Q1'25 | Q2'25 | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | ||
| 51 | Cash from Operations | 880 | 923 | 1,977 | 2,235 | 1,912 | 2,784 | 4,292.40 | 2,802.50 | 3,573.10 | 4,421.70 | 4,752.10 | 659.70 | 962.10 | 1,439.40 | 1,360.50 | 721.40 | 976.80 | 1,559.60 | 1,494.30 | 1,694.50 | |
| 52 | Capital Expenditures | 1,150 | 1,119 | 1,023 | 1,121 | 707 | 592 | -892.30 | -948.50 | -1,008.60 | -1,027.30 | -1,325.30 | -213.80 | -331.80 | -246.40 | -235.30 | -317.80 | -235.70 | -349.20 | -422.60 | -441.90 | |
| 53 | Free Cash Flow | -270 | -196 | 954 | 1,114 | 1,205 | 2,192 | 3,400.10 | 1,854 | 2,564.50 | 3,394.40 | 3,426.80 | 445.90 | 630.30 | 1,193 | 1,125.20 | 403.60 | 741.10 | 1,210.40 | 1,071.70 | 1,252.60 | |
| 54 | Stock-Based Compensation | 20 | 21 | 22 | 22 | 23 | 25 | |||||||||||||||
| 55 | Dividends Paid | -271 | -139 | -456 | -1,082 | -1,237 | -1,160 | -2,473.80 | -2,705.80 | -3,092.40 | -1,637.20 | -2,485.10 | -618.50 | -773.10 | -468.80 | -549.90 | -553.30 | -557.40 | -643.30 | -731.10 | -819.20 | |
| 56 | Share Repurchases | 1,004 | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||
| 57 | Historical Share Price (Period-End) |
| A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |||||||||||||
| 2 | Colour key: | Company filing | Online / market | Computed | Analyst input | ||||||||
| 3 | 1. COST OF CAPITAL (WACC) | ||||||||||||
| 4 | Risk-Free Rate (10Y UST) | 4.5% | |||||||||||
| 5 | Equity Risk Premium (Damodaran) | 4.2% | |||||||||||
| 6 | Beta (Levered) | 1.1 | |||||||||||
| 7 | Size Premium | 0.0% | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||||||
| 8 | Company-Specific Risk Premium | 2.2% | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||||||
| 9 | Cost of Equity (Ke) | 11.6% | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||||||
| 10 | Pre-tax Cost of Debt (Kd) | 6.4% | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||||||
| 11 | Marginal Tax Rate | 38.2% | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||||||
| 12 | After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.0% | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||||||
| 13 | Debt / Total Capital (market) | 1.7% | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||||||
| 14 | Equity / Total Capital (market) | 98.3% | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||||||
| 15 | WACC | 11.5% | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||||||
| 16 | |||||||||||||
| 17 | 2. DCF MODEL — BASE CASE | ||||||||||||
| 18 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Terminal | |||||||
| 19 | ─ Assumptions (blue = inputs) ─ | ||||||||||||
| 20 | Revenue Growth Rate | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||
| 21 | EBITDA Margin | 55.0% | 55.5% | 56.0% | 56.0% | 56.0% | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||
| 22 | D&A / Revenue | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||
| 23 | CapEx / Revenue | 12.0% | 12.0% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 10.0% | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||
| 24 | Change in NWC / Revenue | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | 15.0% | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||
| 25 | Effective Tax Rate | 38.2% | 38.2% | 38.2% | 38.2% | 38.2% | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||
| 26 | Terminal Growth Rate | 2.5% | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||||||
| 27 | Exit EV/EBITDA Multiple | 9.0 | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||||||
| 28 | |||||||||||||
| 29 | ─ Projected Financials ($M) ─ | ||||||||||||
| 30 | Base Revenue (latest FY) | 13,420 | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||||||
| 31 | Projected Revenue | 14,225.20 | 15,221 | 16,134.20 | 16,779.60 | 17,283 | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||
| 32 | Projected EBITDA | 7,823.90 | 8,447.60 | 9,035.20 | 9,396.60 | 9,678.50 | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||
| 33 | Projected D&A | ||||||||||||
| 34 | Projected EBIT | 6,899.20 | 7,458.30 | 7,905.80 | 8,222 | 8,468.70 | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||
| 35 | Tax on EBIT | ||||||||||||
| 36 | NOPAT (EBIT × (1-t)) | 4,260.30 | 4,605.50 | 4,881.80 | 5,077.10 | 5,229.40 | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||
| 37 | (+) D&A | ||||||||||||
| 38 | (-) Capital Expenditures | ||||||||||||
| 39 | (-) Change in NWC | ||||||||||||
| 40 | Unlevered Free Cash Flow (UFCF) | 3,357.10 | 3,619 | 4,180.10 | 4,476.90 | 4,635.40 | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||
| 41 | |||||||||||||
| 42 | ─ Terminal Value ─ | ||||||||||||
| 43 | TV: Perpetuity Growth Method | 52,909.60 | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||||||
| 44 | TV: Exit Multiple Method | 87,106.20 | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||||||
| 45 | TV Divergence (%) | ||||||||||||
| 46 | Selected Terminal Value (avg) | 52,909.60 | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||||||
| 47 | Implied TV / EBITDA_5 | ||||||||||||
| 48 | Terminal Value as % of EV | 67.9% | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||||||
| 49 | |||||||||||||
| 50 | ─ Present Value & Equity Bridge ─ | ||||||||||||
| 51 | Discount Factor (1/(1+WACC)^n) | ||||||||||||
| 52 | PV of UFCF | 3,011.40 | 2,912 | 3,017.20 | 2,898.60 | 2,692.20 | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||
| 53 | Sum of PV of UFCFs | 14,531.30 | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||||||
| 54 | PV of Terminal Value | 30,729.10 | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||||||
| 55 | Enterprise Value (EV) | 45,260.40 | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||||||
| 56 | (-) Net Debt (latest) | 2,446.10 | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||||||
| 57 | (-) Minority Interest | 66.80 | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||||||
| 58 | (+) Non-operating Assets | ||||||||||||
| 59 | Equity Value | 42,747.50 | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||||||
| 60 | Diluted Shares Outstanding (M) | 826.1 | Market share count (SEC EDGAR Q1'26 10-Q cover) — divisor of the per-share fair values; see market_data.json | ||||||||||
| 61 | DCF Fair Value / Share | 51.75 | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||||||
| 62 | Upside / Downside vs Price | -70.1% | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||||||
| 63 | |||||||||||||
| 64 | 3a. DCF — BEAR CASE | ||||||||||||
| 65 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Terminal | |||||||
| 66 | ─ BEAR Assumptions ─ | ||||||||||||
| 67 | Revenue Growth Rate | Bear case = standard adjustments to base (growth −2pp, EBITDA margin −1pp, TGR −0.5pp), fully documented in valuation_assumptions.json; output at B88 | |||||||||||
| 68 | EBITDA Margin | ||||||||||||
| 69 | D&A / Revenue | ||||||||||||
| 70 | CapEx / Revenue | ||||||||||||
| 71 | Change in NWC / Revenue | ||||||||||||
| 72 | Effective Tax Rate | ||||||||||||
| 73 | Terminal Growth Rate | ||||||||||||
| 74 | Exit EV/EBITDA Multiple | ||||||||||||
| 75 | |||||||||||||
| 76 | ─ BEAR Projected UFCF ─ | ||||||||||||
| 77 | Projected Revenue | ||||||||||||
| 78 | Projected EBITDA | ||||||||||||
| 79 | Projected EBIT | ||||||||||||
| 80 | UFCF | ||||||||||||
| 81 | |||||||||||||
| 82 | TV (Perpetuity Growth) | ||||||||||||
| 83 | TV (Exit Multiple) | ||||||||||||
| 84 | Selected TV (avg) | ||||||||||||
| 85 | PV of UFCFs | ||||||||||||
| 86 | PV of Terminal Value | ||||||||||||
| 87 | Enterprise Value | ||||||||||||
| 88 | BEAR DCF Fair Value / Share | 44.83 | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||||||
| 89 | |||||||||||||
| 90 | 3b. DCF — BULL CASE | ||||||||||||
| 91 | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Terminal | |||||||
| 92 | ─ BULL Assumptions ─ | ||||||||||||
| 93 | Revenue Growth Rate | Bull case = mirror adjustments (+2pp/+1pp/+0.5pp); output at B114 | |||||||||||
| 94 | EBITDA Margin | ||||||||||||
| 95 | D&A / Revenue | ||||||||||||
| 96 | CapEx / Revenue | ||||||||||||
| 97 | Change in NWC / Revenue | ||||||||||||
| 98 | Effective Tax Rate | ||||||||||||
| 99 | Terminal Growth Rate | ||||||||||||
| 100 | Exit EV/EBITDA Multiple | ||||||||||||
| 101 | |||||||||||||
| 102 | ─ BULL Projected UFCF ─ | ||||||||||||
| 103 | Projected Revenue | ||||||||||||
| 104 | Projected EBITDA | ||||||||||||
| 105 | Projected EBIT | ||||||||||||
| 106 | UFCF | ||||||||||||
| 107 | |||||||||||||
| 108 | TV (Perpetuity Growth) | ||||||||||||
| 109 | TV (Exit Multiple) | ||||||||||||
| 110 | Selected TV (avg) | ||||||||||||
| 111 | PV of UFCFs | ||||||||||||
| 112 | PV of Terminal Value | ||||||||||||
| 113 | Enterprise Value | ||||||||||||
| 114 | BULL DCF Fair Value / Share | 59.86 | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||||||
| 115 | |||||||||||||
| 116 | 4. MULTIPLES-BASED VALUATION | ||||||||||||
| 117 | Method | Company Metric | Target Multiple | Implied EV or Equity | Per Share FV | ||||||||
| 118 | P/E × EPS | 22.0 | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||||||
| 119 | EV/EBITDA × EBITDA | 12.0 | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||||||
| 120 | EV/EBIT × EBIT | 13.5 | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||||||
| 121 | P/FCF × FCF/Share | 25.0 | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||||||
| 122 | FCF Yield → Price | 4.0% | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||||||
| 123 | |||||||||||||
| 124 | 5. REVERSE DCF — IMPLIED GROWTH AT CURRENT PRICE | ||||||||||||
| 125 | Current Market Cap ($M) | ||||||||||||
| 126 | Current Enterprise Value ($M) | ||||||||||||
| 127 | Latest UFCF ($M, proxy = FCF) | ||||||||||||
| 128 | Assumed margin stable at (%) | ||||||||||||
| 129 | Terminal Growth (same as Base) | ||||||||||||
| 130 | Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate | ||||||||||||
| 131 | Interpretation | If implied g > terminal g, market expects above-trend growth | |||||||||||
| 132 | |||||||||||||
| 133 | 6. COMPOSITE FAIR VALUE | ||||||||||||
| 134 | Method | Bear | Base | Bull | Weight | ||||||||
| 135 | DCF (Section 2/3) | 44.83 | 51.75 | 59.86 | 25.0% | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | |||||||
| 136 | P/E Relative (Section 4) | 97.99 | 115.28 | 132.57 | 25.0% | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | |||||||
| 137 | EV/EBITDA Relative (Section 4) | 94.13 | 111.28 | 128.43 | 25.0% | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | |||||||
| 138 | FCF Yield (Section 4) | 90.18 | 103.70 | 122.00 | 25.0% | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | |||||||
| 139 | |||||||||||||
| 140 | Weighted FV / Scenario | ||||||||||||
| 141 | Scenario Probability | ||||||||||||
| 142 | |||||||||||||
| 143 | COMPOSITE FAIR VALUE | 81.78 | 95.50 | 110.72 | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||||
| 144 | Current Share Price | 172.97 | |||||||||||
| 145 | Upside / Downside | -44.8% | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||||||
| 146 | |||||||||||||
| 147 | 7. SENSITIVITY: WACC × TERMINAL GROWTH → DCF FV/SHARE | ||||||||||||
| 148 | WACC \ TGR | | WACC \ TGR | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | 10.48% | 53.6 | 56.0 | 58.8 | 62.0 | 65.6 | | 10.98% | 50.5 | 52.6 | 55.1 | 57.8 | 60.9 | | **11.48%** | **47.7** | **49.6** | **51.7** | **54.1** | **56.8** | | 11.98% | 45.2 | 46.9 | 48.8 | 50.9 | 53.2 | | 12.48% | 42.9 | 44.4 | 46.1 | 48.0 | 50.0 | | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||||||
| 149 | |||||||||||||
| 150 | |||||||||||||
| 151 | |||||||||||||
| 152 | |||||||||||||
| 153 | |||||||||||||
| 154 | |||||||||||||
| 155 | |||||||||||||
| 156 | |||||||||||||
| 157 | |||||||||||||
| 158 | |||||||||||||
| 159 | 7b. SENSITIVITY: WACC × EXIT MULTIPLE → DCF FV/SHARE | ||||||||||||
| 160 | WACC \ Exit Mult | | WACC \ Exit EV/EBITDA | 7.0x | 8.0x | 9.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | 10.48% | 64.9 | 72.0 | 79.1 | 86.2 | 93.3 | | 10.98% | 63.5 | 70.5 | 77.4 | 84.4 | 91.3 | | **11.48%** | **62.2** | **69.0** | **75.8** | **82.6** | **89.4** | | 11.98% | 60.9 | 67.5 | 74.2 | 80.9 | 87.5 | | 12.48% | 59.6 | 66.1 | 72.7 | 79.2 | 85.7 | | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||||||
| 161 | |||||||||||||
| 162 | |||||||||||||
| 163 | |||||||||||||
| 164 | |||||||||||||
| 165 | |||||||||||||
| 166 | |||||||||||||
| 167 | |||||||||||||
| 168 | |||||||||||||
| 169 | |||||||||||||
| 170 | |||||||||||||
| 171 | |||||||||||||
| 172 | 8. VERDICT | ||||||||||||
| 173 | Rating (BUY / ADD / HOLD / REDUCE / SELL) | SELL | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||||||
| 174 | 12-Month Target Price | 95.50 | |||||||||||
| 175 | Conviction (High / Moderate / Low) | Medium | market-researcher | valuation-agent | as-of: | ||||||||||
| 176 | Key Catalyst (with timeframe) | ||||||||||||
| 177 | Key Risk (with quantified downside) | ||||||||||||
| 178 | Thesis Summary (1-2 sentences) | ||||||||||||
| 179 | |||||||||||||
| 180 | ─ Scenario Multiple Inputs ─ | ||||||||||||
| 181 | P/E Multiple (Bear) | ||||||||||||
| 182 | P/E Multiple (Bull) | ||||||||||||
| 183 | EV/EBITDA Multiple (Bear) | ||||||||||||
| 184 | EV/EBITDA Multiple (Bull) | ||||||||||||
| 185 | FCF Yield (Bear) | ||||||||||||
| 186 | FCF Yield (Bull) |
| A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | O | P | Q | R | S | T | U | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Colour key: | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Period | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Gross Margin | 42.0% | 43.6% | 51.1% | 52.0% | 50.5% | 50.8% | 64.4% | 53.7% | 52.6% | 57.7% | 60.1% | |||||||||
| 5 | EBITDA Margin | 38.1% | 41.1% | 49.4% | 50.1% | 48.3% | 48.8% | 62.8% | 52.1% | 50.8% | 56.0% | 58.6% | |||||||||
| 6 | Operating Margin | 28.0% | 29.1% | 39.4% | 40.6% | 37.8% | 39.1% | 55.5% | 44.1% | 42.4% | 48.6% | 52.2% | |||||||||
| 7 | Net Margin | 14.6% | 14.4% | 11.0% | 21.7% | 20.4% | 19.7% | 31.1% | 26.3% | 24.5% | 29.5% | 32.3% | |||||||||
| 8 | FCF Margin | -5.4% | -3.6% | 14.3% | 15.7% | 16.5% | 27.5% | 31.1% | 18.5% | 25.9% | 29.7% | 25.5% | |||||||||
| 9 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | RETURNS | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | Period | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | ROE | 13.9% | 13.9% | 12.1% | 24.2% | 22.1% | 22.3% | 44.2% | 32.5% | 31.3% | 40.7% | 42.9% | |||||||||
| 13 | ROA | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 19.3% | 14.8% | 14.3% | 19.1% | 21.6% | |||||||||
| 14 | ROIC | 10.2% | 11.1% | 7.4% | 15.0% | 14.3% | 15.2% | 31.1% | 23.1% | 20.8% | 28.4% | 34.7% | |||||||||
| 15 | Interest Coverage | 7.3 | 8.0 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 15.6 | 11.5 | 11.1 | 14.8 | 16.8 | |||||||||||
| 16 | Debt / Equity | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.6 | |||||||||
| 17 | Current Ratio | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 3.9 | |||||||||
| 18 | Total Debt / EBITDA | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.9 | |||||||||
| 19 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 20 | GROWTH RATES (YoY) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 21 | Period | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 22 | Revenue Growth | 6.6% | 23.7% | 6.6% | 2.7% | 9.6% | 36.9% | -8.1% | -1.5% | 15.5% | 17.4% | ||||||||||
| 23 | EBITDA Growth | 14.9% | 48.8% | 8.1% | -1.1% | 10.8% | 76.4% | -23.9% | -3.9% | 27.4% | 23.0% | ||||||||||
| 24 | EPS Growth | 112.8% | -4.0% | 5.7% | 116.3% | -22.3% | -10.6% | 38.0% | 24.5% | ||||||||||||
| 25 | Net Income Growth | 5.6% | -6.2% | 111.7% | -3.7% | 5.7% | 116.4% | -22.3% | -8.1% | 39.2% | 28.4% | ||||||||||
| 26 | FCF Growth | 27.4% | 586.7% | 16.8% | 8.2% | 81.9% | 55.1% | -45.5% | 38.3% | 32.4% | 1.0% | ||||||||||
| 27 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 28 | PER SHARE METRICS | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 29 | Period | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 30 | Book Value / Share | 6.60 | 7.51 | 7.87 | 8.47 | 8.78 | 9.25 | 10.54 | 10.46 | 9.33 | 11.42 | 13.35 | |||||||||
| 31 | FCF / Share | -0.34 | -0.25 | 1.22 | 1.43 | 1.54 | 2.81 | 4.40 | 2.40 | 3.22 | 4.23 | 4.15 | |||||||||
| 32 | Revenue / Share | 6.28 | 6.88 | 8.52 | 9.09 | 9.33 | 10.22 | 14.14 | 13.00 | 12.44 | 14.24 | 16.24 | |||||||||
| 33 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 34 | SOLVENCY & CAPITAL STRUCTURE | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 35 | Period | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 36 | Primary Structure Margin ($M) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 37 | Primary Structure Ratio | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 38 | Secondary Structure Margin ($M) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 39 | Secondary Structure Ratio | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 40 | Degree of Asset Rigidity | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 41 | Financial Autonomy (Equity) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 42 | Financial Autonomy (LT Debt) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 43 | Financial Autonomy (ST Debt) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 44 | Debt Index | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 45 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 46 | LIQUIDITY RATIOS | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 47 | Period | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 48 | Working Capital ($M) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 49 | Quick Ratio | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 50 | Quick Margin ($M) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 51 | Cash Ratio | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 52 | Cash Margin ($M) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 53 | Immediate Liquidity Index | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 54 | Inventory Index | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 55 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 56 | EFFICIENCY & ACTIVITY RATIOS | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 57 | Period | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 58 | Inventory Turnover | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 5.1 | |||||||||
| 59 | Days Inventory Outstanding | 106.8 | 112.3 | 115.1 | 111.1 | 106.4 | 93.8 | 90.1 | 78.0 | 79.1 | 77.9 | 71.8 | |||||||||
| 60 | Receivables Turnover | 9.2 | 8.8 | 8.1 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 9.0 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 9.8 | 8.5 | |||||||||
| 61 | Days Sales Outstanding | 39.9 | 41.4 | 45.1 | 50.1 | 47.2 | 45.3 | 40.5 | 50.0 | 46.8 | 37.2 | 42.7 | |||||||||
| 62 | Payables Turnover | 4.5 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 7.6 | 7.3 | |||||||||
| 63 | Days Payables Outstanding | 80.7 | 74.0 | 69.8 | 71.4 | 64.3 | 55.4 | 55.6 | 49.1 | 51.0 | 47.8 | 50.3 | |||||||||
| 64 | Cash Conversion Cycle (days) | 66.0 | 79.6 | 90.4 | 89.8 | 89.3 | 83.6 | 75.0 | 78.9 | 74.8 | 67.3 | 64.2 | |||||||||
| 65 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 66 | VALUATION & SHAREHOLDER METRICS | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 67 | Period | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 68 | Return on Capital (ROC) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 69 | Gross ROE (EBIT/Equity) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 70 | Hard Assets / Share (PP&E + Cash) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 71 | Tangible Book Value / Share | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 72 | Asset Turnover | 0.40 | 0.41 | 0.48 | 0.50 | 0.44 | 0.47 | 0.60 | 0.58 | 0.59 | 0.61 | 0.63 | |||||||||
| 73 | Dividend Payout Ratio | 36.8% | 17.9% | 62.6% | 70.1% | 83.2% | 73.9% | 72.8% | 102.6% | 127.5% | 48.5% | 57.3% | |||||||||
| 74 | SBC / Revenue | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 75 | SBC / FCF | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 76 | FCF Conversion (FCF/NI) | -36.7% | -25.2% | 130.9% | 72.2% | 81.1% | 139.6% | 100.1% | 70.3% | 105.7% | 100.5% | 79.1% | |||||||||
| 77 | CapEx / Revenue | 22.8% | 20.8% | 15.4% | 15.8% | 9.7% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 9.9% | |||||||||
| 78 | CapEx / D&A | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.5 | |||||||||
| 79 | Intangibles / Total Assets | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 80 | Net Debt / EBITDA | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 | |||||||||
| 81 | Effective Tax Rate | 68.3% | 40.4% | 38.8% | 42.8% | 40.4% | 37.6% | 38.4% | 36.9% | 36.4% | |||||||||||
| 82 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 83 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 84 | SHAREHOLDER METRICS | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 85 | Period | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 86 | Dividend Per Share | 0.34 | 0.18 | 0.58 | 1.39 | 1.58 | 1.49 | 3.20 | 3.50 | 3.89 | 2.04 | 3.01 | |||||||||
| 87 | Dividend Yield (on current price) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | |||||||||
| 88 | SBC / Net Income | 2.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | ||||||||||||||
| 89 | Buyback Yield | 0.7% | 0.1% | ||||||||||||||||||
| 90 | Total Shareholder Return Yield | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 1.7% | |||||||||
| 91 | Price / Tangible Book | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 92 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 93 | VALUATION MULTIPLES (at current price) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 94 | Period | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 95 | P/E | 184.0 | 86.5 | 90.1 | 85.2 | 39.4 | 50.7 | 56.7 | 41.1 | 33.0 | |||||||||||
| 96 | P/S | 27.5 | 25.1 | 20.3 | 19.0 | 18.5 | 16.9 | 12.2 | 13.3 | 13.9 | 12.1 | 10.7 | |||||||||
| 97 | P/B | 26.21 | 23.04 | 21.97 | 20.43 | 19.70 | 18.70 | 16.41 | 16.54 | 18.54 | 15.14 | 12.95 | |||||||||
| 98 | P/FCF | -514.4 | -690.1 | 141.6 | 121.3 | 112.1 | 61.6 | 39.3 | 72.1 | 53.6 | 40.9 | 41.7 | |||||||||
| 99 | EV/EBITDA | 75.1 | 63.7 | 42.6 | 39.4 | 39.8 | 35.8 | 20.0 | 26.4 | 28.4 | 22.2 | 18.5 | |||||||||
| 100 | EV/EBIT | 102.3 | 90.0 | 53.5 | 48.7 | 50.9 | 44.7 | 22.6 | 31.1 | 34.0 | 25.6 | 20.8 | |||||||||
| 101 | FCF Yield | -0.2% | -0.1% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.4% | |||||||||
| 102 | Earnings Yield | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.0% | |||||||||||
| 103 | PEG Ratio (3Y / 5Y / 10Y EPS CAGR) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 104 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 105 | ALTMAN Z-SCORE | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 106 | Period | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 107 | X1: Working Capital / TA | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | |||||||||
| 108 | X2: Retained Earnings / TA | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | |||||||||
| 109 | X3: EBIT / TA (GAAP) | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | |||||||||
| 110 | X4: Equity / TL (book proxy) | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.1 | |||||||||
| 111 | X5: Revenue / TA | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | |||||||||
| 112 | Altman Z-Score | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3.1 | |||||||||
| 113 | Zone (>2.99=Safe, 1.81-2.99=Gray, <1.81=Distress) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 114 | Z-Score (Mkt Equity X4) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 115 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 116 | DUPONT DECOMPOSITION (ROE = Margin × Turnover × Leverage) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 117 | Period | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 118 | Net Profit Margin (NI/Rev) | 14.6% | 14.4% | 11.0% | 21.7% | 20.4% | 19.7% | 31.1% | 26.3% | 24.5% | 29.5% | 32.3% | |||||||||
| 119 | Asset Turnover (Rev/TA) | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | |||||||||
| 120 | Equity Multiplier (TA/Eq) | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | |||||||||
| 121 | DuPont ROE (check) | 13.9% | 13.9% | 12.1% | 24.2% | 22.1% | 22.3% | 44.2% | 32.5% | 31.3% | 40.7% | 42.9% | |||||||||
| 122 | ─ 5-Factor DuPont ─ | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 123 | Tax Burden (NI / PreTax) | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | |||||||||||
| 124 | Interest Burden (PreTax / EBIT) | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | |||||||||||
| 125 | EBIT Margin (EBIT / Rev) | 28.0% | 29.1% | 39.4% | 40.6% | 37.8% | 39.1% | 55.5% | 44.1% | 42.4% | 48.6% | 52.2% | |||||||||
| 126 | 5-Factor DuPont ROE (check) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 127 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 128 | QUARTERLY TREND ANALYSIS | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 129 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 130 | Revenue QoQ | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 131 | Net Income QoQ | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 132 | EPS QoQ | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 133 | EBITDA QoQ | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 134 | FCF QoQ | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 135 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 136 | ─ Year-over-Year (Quarter) ─ | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 137 | Revenue YoY-Q | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 138 | Net Income YoY-Q | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 139 | EPS YoY-Q | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 140 | EBITDA YoY-Q | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 141 | FCF YoY-Q | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 142 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 143 | ─ Quarterly Margins ─ | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 144 | Gross Margin (Q) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 145 | EBITDA Margin (Q) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 146 | Operating Margin (Q) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 147 | Net Margin (Q) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 148 | FCF Margin (Q) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 149 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 150 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 151 | COMPOUND ANNUAL GROWTH RATES (CAGR) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 152 | Metric | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | |||||||||||||||||
| 153 | Revenue | 10.1% | 10.9% | 10.3% | |||||||||||||||||
| 154 | EBITDA | 14.6% | 15.1% | 15.1% | |||||||||||||||||
| 155 | Net Income | 18.0% | 22.5% | 19.4% | |||||||||||||||||
| 156 | Diluted EPS | 15.4% | 20.9% | ||||||||||||||||||
| 157 | Free Cash Flow | 22.7% | 9.3% | ||||||||||||||||||
| 158 | Operating Cash Flow | 19.2% | 11.3% | 18.4% | |||||||||||||||||
| 159 | Dividends / Share | -4.9% | 15.1% | 24.4% | |||||||||||||||||
| 160 | Shares Outstanding | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | |||||||||||||||||
| 161 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 162 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 163 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 164 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 165 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 166 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 167 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 168 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 169 | RECONCILIATION CHECKS | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 170 | Period | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 171 | EBITDA ≠ EBIT+D&A? (should be 0) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 172 | NI ≠ PreTax-Tax? (non-zero = other inc/exp) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 173 | Equity = Assets - Liabilities? (should be 0) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 174 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 175 | VALUATION MULTIPLES (at period-end price) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 176 | Period | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 177 | P/E (historical) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 178 | P/S (historical) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 179 | P/B (historical) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 180 | P/FCF (historical) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 181 | EV/EBITDA (historical) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 182 | EV/EBIT (historical) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 183 | FCF Yield (historical) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 184 | Earnings Yield (historical) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 185 | Dividend Yield (historical) |
| A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Peer Comparison Data | ||||||||||||
| 2 | Company | Freeport-McMoRan Inc. | Teck Resources Limited | Hudbay Minerals Inc. | Capstone Copper Corp. | Computed | Analyst input | market-researcher | peer-researcher | as-of: | |||||
| 3 | Ticker | FCX | TECK | HBM | CMMC | market-researcher | peer-researcher | as-of: | |||||||
| 4 | Accounting Std. | US GAAP | IFRS | IFRS | IFRS | market-researcher | peer-researcher | as-of: | |||||||
| 5 | Fiscal Year End | December | December | December | December | market-researcher | peer-researcher | as-of: | |||||||
| 6 | Filing Type | 10-K | 40-F | 40-F | Annual FS (SEDAR+) | market-researcher | peer-researcher | as-of: | |||||||
| 7 | Period | FY2025 | FY2025 | FY2025 | FY2025 | market-researcher | peer-researcher | as-of: | |||||||
| 8 | P&L METRICS | ||||||||||||
| 9 | |||||||||||||
| 10 | Revenue ($M) | 25,915.0 | 7,694.9 | 2,211.0 | 2,359.9 | market-researcher | peer-researcher | as-of: | |||||||
| 11 | EBIT Margin | 25.2 | 20.9 | 41.5 | 29.9 | market-researcher | peer-researcher | as-of: | |||||||
| 12 | EBITDA Margin | 33.8 | 37.2 | 61.3 | 50.3 | market-researcher | peer-researcher | as-of: | |||||||
| 13 | Net Margin | 8.5 | 13.0 | 25.7 | 13.4 | market-researcher | peer-researcher | as-of: | |||||||
| 14 | Gross Margin | 28.2 | 24.7 | 33.6 | market-researcher | peer-researcher | as-of: | ||||||||
| 15 | FCF Margin | 4.3 | -3.3 | 10.9 | 7.0 | market-researcher | peer-researcher | as-of: | |||||||
| 16 | RETURNS & EFFICIENCY | ||||||||||||
| 17 | ROIC | 11.7 | 5.8 | 15.4 | 11.2 | market-researcher | peer-researcher | as-of: | |||||||
| 18 | ROE | 11.7 | 5.6 | 17.6 | 9.3 | market-researcher | peer-researcher | as-of: | |||||||
| 19 | ROA | 3.8 | 3.1 | 9.1 | 4.4 | market-researcher | peer-researcher | as-of: | |||||||
| 20 | Asset Turnover | 0.45 | 0.24 | 0.36 | 0.33 | market-researcher | peer-researcher | as-of: | |||||||
| 21 | LEVERAGE | ||||||||||||
| 22 | Net Debt / EBITDA | 0.63 | -0.28 | 0.32 | 0.60 | market-researcher | peer-researcher | as-of: | |||||||
| 23 | Debt / Equity | 0.50 | 0.16 | 0.31 | 0.30 | market-researcher | peer-researcher | as-of: | |||||||
| 24 | Interest Coverage | 17.7 | 2.5 | 15.1 | 4.8 | market-researcher | peer-researcher | as-of: | |||||||
| 25 | Current Ratio | 2.29 | 2.54 | 0.95 | 1.20 | market-researcher | peer-researcher | as-of: | |||||||
| 26 | VALUATION MULTIPLES | ||||||||||||
| 27 | EV / EBITDA | 11.0 | 10.3 | 7.8 | 6.8 | market-researcher | peer-researcher | as-of: | |||||||
| 28 | P / E | 41.7 | 30.5 | 17.8 | 23.4 | market-researcher | peer-researcher | as-of: | |||||||
| 29 | FCF Yield | 1.2 | -0.9 | 2.4 | 2.3 | market-researcher | peer-researcher | as-of: | |||||||
| 30 | WORKING CAPITAL | ||||||||||||
| 31 | Days Sales Outstanding | 13.8 | 87.0 | 62.4 | 54.6 | market-researcher | peer-researcher | as-of: | |||||||
| 32 | Days Inventory Outstanding | 146.9 | 123.8 | 49.5 | 54.7 | market-researcher | peer-researcher | as-of: | |||||||
| 33 | Days Payables Outstanding | 89.5 | 153.4 | 85.2 | 101.4 | market-researcher | peer-researcher | as-of: | |||||||
| 34 | Cash Conversion Cycle | 71.2 | 57.4 | 26.7 | 7.9 | market-researcher | peer-researcher | as-of: | |||||||
| 35 | CapEx / Revenue | 17.3 | 17.1 | 21.1 | 22.0 | market-researcher | peer-researcher | as-of: | |||||||
| 36 | |||||||||||||
| 37 | |||||||||||||
| 38 | |||||||||||||
| 39 | |||||||||||||
| 40 | |||||||||||||
| 41 | |||||||||||||
| 42 | |||||||||||||
| 43 | |||||||||||||
| 44 | |||||||||||||
| 45 | |||||||||||||
| 46 | |||||||||||||
| 47 | |||||||||||||
| 48 | |||||||||||||
| 49 | DATA QUALITY FLAGS | ||||||||||||
| 50 | Revenue | OK | IFRS_TRANSLATED | IFRS | IFRS | market-researcher | peer-researcher | as-of: | |||||||
| 51 | EBIT Margin | OK | IFRS | IFRS_IMPAIRMENT_REVERSAL | IFRS_IMPAIRMENT_REVERSAL | market-researcher | peer-researcher | as-of: | |||||||
| 52 | EBITDA Margin | market-researcher | peer-researcher | as-of: | |||||||||||
| 53 | Net Margin | market-researcher | peer-researcher | as-of: | |||||||||||
| 54 | Gross Margin | market-researcher | peer-researcher | as-of: | |||||||||||
| 55 | FCF Margin | market-researcher | peer-researcher | as-of: | |||||||||||
| 56 | ROIC | market-researcher | peer-researcher | as-of: | |||||||||||
| 57 | ROE | market-researcher | peer-researcher | as-of: | |||||||||||
| 58 | ROA | market-researcher | peer-researcher | as-of: | |||||||||||
| 59 | Asset Turnover | market-researcher | peer-researcher | as-of: | |||||||||||
| 60 | Net Debt / EBITDA | market-researcher | peer-researcher | as-of: | |||||||||||
| 61 | EV / EBITDA | MARKET_SOURCED | MARKET_SOURCED_IFRS_TRANSLATED | MARKET_SOURCED | MARKET_SOURCED | market-researcher | peer-researcher | as-of: | |||||||
| 62 | P / E | market-researcher | peer-researcher | as-of: |