REPORT DIFF
Waste Management, Inc. — what changed
3. Financial Analysis (8 changed lines)
− | **Z-Score** | **1.74** | **1.39** | **1.54** |
− | Zone | Distress (<1.81) | Distress (<1.81) | Distress (<1.81) |
− *Source: Company SEC filings (10-K); figures per the FL model — see Appendix A.1–A.2.*
− **Interpret with care — this is a model-limitation signal, not a solvency warning.** On the classic Altman scale WM sits in the "distress" zone in all three years (1.74, 1.39, 1.54, each below the 1.81 boundary), and a naïve reading would be alarming. It should not be read that way. The original Z-score was calibrated on manufacturers and systematically misclassifies capital-intensive, high-fixed-
+ | **Z-Score** | **1.43** | **1.15** | **1.27** |
+ | Zone | Gray | Distress | Gray |
+ *Source: Company SEC filings (10-K); figures per the FL model — see Appendix A.1–A.2.*
+ **Interpret with care — this is a model-limitation signal, not a solvency warning.** The score computed here is Altman's Z′ private-firm variant (the book-equity form), and it must be read against *that* model's own bands — safe above 2.90, distress below 1.23, gray in between — not the higher cut-offs of the original manufacturer Z-score. On that correct scale WM prints in the Gray zone in FY2023
4. Valuation Methodology (18 changed lines)
− | WACC \ TGR | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
− |---|---|---|---|---|---|
− | 5.36% | 232.7 | 270.3 | 321.0 | 393.2 | 504.2 |
− | 5.86% | 199.1 | 227.5 | 264.4 | 314.2 | 385.0 |
− | **6.36%** | 172.4 | 194.5 | **222.4** | 258.6 | 307.5 |
− | 6.86% | 150.7 | 168.4 | 190.1 | 217.5 | 253.0 |
− | 7.36% | 132.7 | 147.1 | 164.4 | 185.8 | 212.7 |
+ | WACC \ TGR | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
+ |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+ | 4.4% | 282.4 | 335.1 | 410.1 | 525.4 | 725.4 | 1,157.3 | 2,782.2 |
+ | 4.9% | 237.9 | 276.3 | 328.0 | 401.6 | 514.7 | 710.8 | 1,134.6 |
+ | 5.4% | 203.7 | 232.6 | 270.2 | 321.0 | 393.2 | 504.2 | 696.6 |
+ | 5.9% | 176.5 | 199.0 | 227.5 | 264.4 | 314.1 | 385.0 | 493.9 |
+ | 6.4% | 154.3 | 172.4 | 194.5 | 222.4 | 258.6 | 307.5 | 377.0 |
+ | 6.9% | 136.0 | 150.6 | 168.3 | 190.1 | 217.5 | 253.0 | 300.9 |
+ | 7.4% | 120.5 | 132.6 | 147.1 | 164.4 | 185.8 | 212.6 | 247.5 |
+ | 7.9% | 107.3 | 117.5 | 129.4 | 143.5 | 160.6 | 181.5 | 207.9 |
+ | 8.4% | 95.9 | 104.5 | 114.5 | 126.2 | 140.1 | 156.8 | 177.4 |
6. Valuation & Price Target (18 changed lines)
− | WACC \ TGR | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
− |---|---|---|---|---|---|
− | 5.36% | 232.7 | 270.3 | 321.0 | 393.2 | 504.2 |
− | 5.86% | 199.1 | 227.5 | 264.4 | 314.2 | 385.0 |
− | **6.36%** | 172.4 | 194.5 | **222.4** | 258.6 | 307.5 |
− | 6.86% | 150.7 | 168.4 | 190.1 | 217.5 | 253.0 |
− | 7.36% | 132.7 | 147.1 | 164.4 | 185.8 | 212.7 |
+ | WACC \ TGR | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
+ |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+ | 4.4% | 282.4 | 335.1 | 410.1 | 525.4 | 725.4 | 1,157.3 | 2,782.2 |
+ | 4.9% | 237.9 | 276.3 | 328.0 | 401.6 | 514.7 | 710.8 | 1,134.6 |
+ | 5.4% | 203.7 | 232.6 | 270.2 | 321.0 | 393.2 | 504.2 | 696.6 |
+ | 5.9% | 176.5 | 199.0 | 227.5 | 264.4 | 314.1 | 385.0 | 493.9 |
+ | 6.4% | 154.3 | 172.4 | 194.5 | 222.4 | 258.6 | 307.5 | 377.0 |
+ | 6.9% | 136.0 | 150.6 | 168.3 | 190.1 | 217.5 | 253.0 | 300.9 |
+ | 7.4% | 120.5 | 132.6 | 147.1 | 164.4 | 185.8 | 212.6 | 247.5 |
+ | 7.9% | 107.3 | 117.5 | 129.4 | 143.5 | 160.6 | 181.5 | 207.9 |
+ | 8.4% | 95.9 | 104.5 | 114.5 | 126.2 | 140.1 | 156.8 | 177.4 |