EXCEL MODEL — ONLINE VIEW

UnitedHealth Group

UNH · UNH_Portfolio.xlsx · hover a computed cell to see its formula · Download workbook

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	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L
1	Market Data
2	Colour key:	Company filing		Online / market		Computed		Analyst input
3
4	A — CURRENT MARKET METRICS
5	Analysis Date			Enter today's date — carried into the report header
6	Data Source			e.g. "Yahoo Finance" \| "Bloomberg" \| "Broker platform"
7
8	Current Stock Price	397.64	$	Per share, as of Analysis Date
9	52-Week High		$
10	52-Week Low		$
11	Shares Outstanding	911	M shares	From 10-K cover page or latest quarterly filing
12
13	Market Capitalization	362,250.04	$M
14	Net Debt	54,024	$M	From 10-K balance sheet (Total Debt − Cash)
15	Enterprise Value	416,274.04	$M
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17	EV / LTM EBITDA	17.85	×	[computed by recalc.py from EV ÷ LTM EBITDA in Data]
18	P / LTM EPS (P/E)	30.06	×	[computed by recalc.py from Price ÷ latest EPS]
19	LTM FCF per Share	17.65	$	[computed by recalc.py]
20	FCF Yield	0.04	%	[computed by recalc.py]
21	Dividend Yield	0.02	%	[computed by recalc.py]
22
23	B — COST OF CAPITAL (WACC INPUTS)
24	Risk-Free Rate (10Y UST)	0.0446	%	Enter as decimal (e.g. 4.46% → 0.0446) \| Source: US Treasury
25	Equity Risk Premium (ERP)	0.0423	%	Enter as decimal \| Source: Damodaran (updated Jan each year)
26	Beta (Levered)	0.6500	×	5-year monthly vs. S&P 500 \| Source: Yahoo Finance / Macrotrends
27	Size Premium	0	%	Usually 0 for large-cap companies \| Source: Duff & Phelps
28	Company-Specific Risk Premium		%	Your call: add for single-commodity risk, country risk, etc.
29	Cost of Equity (Ke)	0.07	%
30
31	Pre-Tax Cost of Debt (Kd)		%	Enter as decimal \| From 10-K: interest expense ÷ avg gross debt
32	Marginal Tax Rate		%	Enter as decimal \| Effective tax rate from latest annual filing
33	After-Tax Cost of Debt		%
34
35	Debt / Total Capital (market weights)		%	Enter as decimal \| = Total Debt ÷ (Market Cap + Total Debt)
36	Equity / Total Capital		%
37	WACC		%
38
39	C — HISTORICAL SHARE PRICES (fiscal year-end)
40	Fiscal Year	FY2015	FY2016	FY2017	FY2018	FY2019	FY2020	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025
41	End-of-Year Price ($)
42	Source: Yahoo Finance (historical prices) → select fiscal year-end closing price
43
44	D — PEER VALUATION MULTIPLES (market-sourced)
45	Metric	FCX (Freeport)	TECK (Teck Resources)	HBM (Hudbay)	CMMC (Capstone)
46	EV / EBITDA (×)
47	P / E (×)
48	FCF Yield (%)
49

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O	P	Q	R	S	T	U
1
2	COMPANY INFO
3	Ticker	UNH
4	Company Name	UnitedHealth Group Inc.
5	Sector / Industry	Healthcare / Managed Care
6	Fiscal Year End	December 31											0.65
7	Currency	USD
8	Current Share Price	201.37											360,100
9	Report Date	2026-06-05
10	Source (10-K filing date)	10-K FY2025 (filed 2026-03-02)
11
12	INCOME STATEMENT ($M)
13		2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025		Q1'24	Q2'24	Q3'24	Q4'24	Q1'25	Q2'25	Q3'25	Q4'25
14	Revenue									371,622	400,278	447,567
15	Cost of Goods Sold
16	Gross Profit
17	SG&A									54,628	53,013	59,592
18	R&D
19	Total OpEx (excl. COGS)
20	EBITDA									36,330	36,386	23,325
21	D&A									3,972	4,099	4,361
22	EBIT (Operating Income)									32,358	32,287	18,964
23	Interest Expense									-3,246	-3,906	-4,002
24	Pre-Tax Income									29,112	20,071	14,697
25	Tax Expense									6,731	5,666	2,641
26	Net Income									22,381	14,405	12,056
27	Diluted EPS									23.86	15.51	13.23
28	Diluted Shares Out. (M)									938.0	929.0	911.0	908.14
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30	BALANCE SHEET ($M)
31
32	Total Cash & Equivalents										25,312	24,365
33	Short-term Debt										4,545	6,069
34	Long-term Debt										72,359	72,320
35	Total Debt										76,904	78,389
36	Net Debt										51,592	54,024
37	Total Current Assets										85,779	90,582
38	Total Current Liabilities										103,769	114,897
39	Total Assets									273,720	298,278	309,581
40	Total Liabilities									184,964	195,687	207,883
41	Shareholders' Equity									88,756	92,658	94,110
42	Minority Interest									5,665	5,610	5,980
43	Intangible Assets & Goodwill										130,002	130,973
44	PP&E										10,553	10,762
45	Receivables										22,365	23,018
46	Payables										34,337	38,032
47	Inventory
48	Retained Earnings									95,774	96,036	95,603
49	CASH FLOW STATEMENT ($M)
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51	Cash from Operations									29,068	24,204	19,697
52	Capital Expenditures									-3,386	-3,499	-3,622
53	Free Cash Flow									25,682	20,705	16,075
54	Stock-Based Compensation									1,059	1,018	971
55	Dividends Paid									-6,761	-7,533	-7,916
56	Share Repurchases									-8,000	-9,000	-5,545
57	Historical Share Price (Period-End)

	A	B	C	D
1
2
3	1. COST OF CAPITAL (WACC)
4	Risk-Free Rate (10Y UST)	4.5%
5	Equity Risk Premium (Damodaran)	4.2%
6	Beta (Levered)	0.7
7	Size Premium	0.0%
8	Company-Specific Risk Premium	0.5%
9	Cost of Equity (Ke)	7.2%
10	Pre-tax Cost of Debt (Kd)	5.3%
11	Marginal Tax Rate	24.1%
12	After-tax Cost of Debt	4.1%
13	Debt / Total Capital (market)	13.0%
14	Equity / Total Capital (market)	87.0%
15	WACC	7.7%
16
17	2. DCF MODEL — BASE CASE
18
19	─ Assumptions (blue = inputs) ─
20	Revenue Growth Rate	8.0%
21	EBITDA Margin	7.5%
22	D&A / Revenue	1.0%
23	CapEx / Revenue	0.8%
24	Change in NWC / Revenue	0.5%
25	Effective Tax Rate	24.1%
26	Terminal Growth Rate	3.5%
27	Exit EV/EBITDA Multiple	12.0
28
29	─ Projected Financials ($M) ─
30	Base Revenue (latest FY)	447,567
31	Projected Revenue
32	Projected EBITDA
33	Projected D&A
34	Projected EBIT
35	Tax on EBIT
36	NOPAT (EBIT × (1-t))
37	(+) D&A
38	(-) Capital Expenditures
39	(-) Change in NWC
40	Unlevered Free Cash Flow (UFCF)
41
42	─ Terminal Value ─
43	TV: Perpetuity Growth Method
44	TV: Exit Multiple Method
45	TV Divergence (%)
46	Selected Terminal Value (avg)
47	Implied TV / EBITDA_5
48	Terminal Value as % of EV
49
50	─ Present Value & Equity Bridge ─
51	Discount Factor (1/(1+WACC)^n)
52	PV of UFCF
53	Sum of PV of UFCFs
54	PV of Terminal Value
55	Enterprise Value (EV)
56	(-) Net Debt (latest)
57	(-) Minority Interest
58	(+) Non-operating Assets
59	Equity Value
60	Diluted Shares Outstanding (M)
61	DCF Fair Value / Share	788.50
62	Upside / Downside vs Price	98.3%
63
64	3a. DCF — BEAR CASE
65
66	─ BEAR Assumptions ─
67	Revenue Growth Rate	8.0%
68	EBITDA Margin	7.5%
69	D&A / Revenue	1.0%
70	CapEx / Revenue	0.8%
71	Change in NWC / Revenue	0.5%
72	Effective Tax Rate	24.1%
73	Terminal Growth Rate	3.5%
74	Exit EV/EBITDA Multiple	12.0
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76	─ BEAR Projected UFCF ─
77	Projected Revenue
78	Projected EBITDA
79	Projected EBIT
80	UFCF
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82	TV (Perpetuity Growth)
83	TV (Exit Multiple)
84	Selected TV (avg)
85	PV of UFCFs
86	PV of Terminal Value
87	Enterprise Value
88	BEAR DCF Fair Value / Share	557.83
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90	3b. DCF — BULL CASE
91
92	─ BULL Assumptions ─
93	Revenue Growth Rate	8.0%
94	EBITDA Margin	7.5%
95	D&A / Revenue	1.0%
96	CapEx / Revenue	0.8%
97	Change in NWC / Revenue	0.5%
98	Effective Tax Rate	24.1%
99	Terminal Growth Rate	3.5%
100	Exit EV/EBITDA Multiple	12.0
101
102	─ BULL Projected UFCF ─
103	Projected Revenue
104	Projected EBITDA
105	Projected EBIT
106	UFCF
107
108	TV (Perpetuity Growth)
109	TV (Exit Multiple)
110	Selected TV (avg)
111	PV of UFCFs
112	PV of Terminal Value
113	Enterprise Value
114	BULL DCF Fair Value / Share	1,103.31
115
116	4. MULTIPLES-BASED VALUATION
117	Method
118	P/E × EPS
119	EV/EBITDA × EBITDA
120	EV/EBIT × EBIT
121	P/FCF × FCF/Share
122	FCF Yield → Price
123
124	5. REVERSE DCF — IMPLIED GROWTH AT CURRENT PRICE
125	Current Market Cap ($M)
126	Current Enterprise Value ($M)
127	Latest UFCF ($M, proxy = FCF)
128	Assumed margin stable at (%)
129	Terminal Growth (same as Base)
130	Implied Perpetuity Growth Rate
131	Interpretation
132
133	6. COMPOSITE FAIR VALUE
134	Method
135	DCF (Section 2/3)	557.83	788.50	1,103.31
136	P/E Relative (Section 4)	224.91	264.60	304.29
137	EV/EBITDA Relative (Section 4)	217.74	267.82	317.91
138	FCF Yield (Section 4)	342.05	393.36	462.77
139
140	Weighted FV / Scenario
141	Scenario Probability
142
143	COMPOSITE FAIR VALUE	335.63	428.57	547.07
144	Current Share Price	397.64	397.64
145	Upside / Downside	-15.6%	0.08
146
147	7. SENSITIVITY: WACC × TERMINAL GROWTH → DCF FV/SHARE
148	WACC \ TGR	\| WACC \ TGR \| 2.5% \| 3.0% \| 3.5% \| 4.0% \| 4.5% \| \|---\|---\|---\|---\|---\|---\| \| 6.7% \| 819 \| 924 \| 1,062 \| 1,251 \| 1,526 \| \| 7.2% \| 723 \| 804 \| 906 \| 1,041 \| 1,227 \| \| 7.7% \| 645 \| 709 \| 788 \| 889 \| 1,022 \| \| 8.2% \| 581 \| 633 \| 696 \| 774 \| 872 \| \| 8.7% \| 528 \| 570 \| 621 \| 683 \| 759 \|
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159	7b. SENSITIVITY: WACC × EXIT MULTIPLE → DCF FV/SHARE
160	WACC \ Exit Mult	\| WACC \ Exit EV/EBITDA \| 10.0x \| 11.0x \| 12.0x \| 13.0x \| 14.0x \| \|---\|---\|---\|---\|---\|---\| \| 6.7% \| 514 \| 557 \| 601 \| 644 \| 688 \| \| 7.2% \| 502 \| 544 \| 587 \| 629 \| 671 \| \| 7.7% \| 490 \| 532 \| 573 \| 614 \| 656 \| \| 8.2% \| 479 \| 519 \| 560 \| 600 \| 640 \| \| 8.7% \| 468 \| 507 \| 547 \| 586 \| 626 \|
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172	8. VERDICT
173	Rating (BUY / ADD / HOLD / REDUCE / SELL)	ADD
174	12-Month Target Price
175	Conviction (High / Moderate / Low)
176	Key Catalyst (with timeframe)
177	Key Risk (with quantified downside)
178	Thesis Summary (1-2 sentences)
179
180	─ Scenario Multiple Inputs ─
181	P/E Multiple (Bear)
182	P/E Multiple (Bull)
183	EV/EBITDA Multiple (Bear)
184	EV/EBITDA Multiple (Bull)
185	FCF Yield (Bear)
186	FCF Yield (Bull)

	A	J	K	L
1
2	MARGINS
3	Period
4	Gross Margin
5	EBITDA Margin	9.8%	9.1%	5.2%
6	Operating Margin	8.7%	8.1%	4.2%
7	Net Margin	6.0%	3.6%	2.7%
8	FCF Margin	6.9%	5.2%	3.6%
9
10	RETURNS
11	Period
12	ROE	25.2%	15.9%	12.9%
13	ROA	8.2%	5.0%	4.0%
14	ROIC	28.0%	16.1%	10.6%
15	Interest Coverage	10.0	8.3	4.7
16	Debt / Equity		0.8	0.8
17	Current Ratio		0.8	0.8
18	Total Debt / EBITDA		2.1	3.4
19
20	GROWTH RATES (YoY)
21	Period
22	Revenue Growth		7.7%	11.8%
23	EBITDA Growth		0.2%	-35.9%
24	EPS Growth		-35.0%	-14.7%
25	Net Income Growth		-35.6%	-16.3%
26	FCF Growth		-19.4%	-22.4%
27
28	PER SHARE METRICS
29	Period
30	Book Value / Share	94.62	99.74	103.30
31	FCF / Share	27.38	22.29	17.65
32	Revenue / Share	396.19	430.87	491.29
33
34	SOLVENCY & CAPITAL STRUCTURE
35	Period
36	Primary Structure Margin ($M)
37	Primary Structure Ratio
38	Secondary Structure Margin ($M)
39	Secondary Structure Ratio
40	Degree of Asset Rigidity
41	Financial Autonomy (Equity)
42	Financial Autonomy (LT Debt)
43	Financial Autonomy (ST Debt)
44	Debt Index
45
46	LIQUIDITY RATIOS
47	Period
48	Working Capital ($M)
49	Quick Ratio
50	Quick Margin ($M)
51	Cash Ratio
52	Cash Margin ($M)
53	Immediate Liquidity Index
54	Inventory Index
55
56	EFFICIENCY & ACTIVITY RATIOS
57	Period
58	Inventory Turnover
59	Days Inventory Outstanding
60	Receivables Turnover			19.7
61	Days Sales Outstanding			18.5
62	Payables Turnover
63	Days Payables Outstanding
64	Cash Conversion Cycle (days)
65
66	VALUATION & SHAREHOLDER METRICS
67	Period
68	Return on Capital (ROC)
69	Gross ROE (EBIT/Equity)
70	Hard Assets / Share (PP&E + Cash)
71	Tangible Book Value / Share
72	Asset Turnover	1.36	1.34	1.45
73	Dividend Payout Ratio	30.2%	52.3%	65.7%
74	SBC / Revenue
75	SBC / FCF
76	FCF Conversion (FCF/NI)	114.7%	143.7%	133.3%
77	CapEx / Revenue	0.9%	0.9%	0.8%
78	CapEx / D&A	0.9	0.9	0.8
79	Intangibles / Total Assets
80	Net Debt / EBITDA		1.4	2.3
81	Effective Tax Rate	23.1%	28.2%	18.0%
82
83
84	SHAREHOLDER METRICS
85	Period
86	Dividend Per Share	7.21	8.11	8.69
87	Dividend Yield (on current price)	0.04	0.04	0.04
88	SBC / Net Income	4.7%	7.1%	8.1%
89	Buyback Yield	4.2%	4.8%	3.0%
90	Total Shareholder Return Yield	7.8%	8.8%	7.3%
91	Price / Tangible Book
92
93	VALUATION MULTIPLES (at current price)
94	Period
95	P/E	8.4	13.0	15.2
96	P/S	0.5	0.5	0.4
97	P/B	2.13	2.02	1.95
98	P/FCF	7.4	9.0	11.4
99	EV/EBITDA	5.4	6.7	10.4
100	EV/EBIT	6.0	7.6	12.8
101	FCF Yield	13.6%	11.1%	8.8%
102	Earnings Yield	11.8%	7.7%	6.6%
103	PEG Ratio (3Y / 5Y / 10Y EPS CAGR)
104
105	ALTMAN Z-SCORE
106	Period
107	X1: Working Capital / TA		-0.1	-0.1
108	X2: Retained Earnings / TA	0.3	0.3	0.3
109	X3: EBIT / TA (GAAP)	0.1	0.1	0.1
110	X4: Equity / TL (book proxy)	0.5	0.5	0.5
111	X5: Revenue / TA	1.4	1.3	1.4
112	Altman Z-Score		2.4	2.3
113	Zone (>2.99=Safe, 1.81-2.99=Gray, <1.81=Distress)
114	Z-Score (Mkt Equity X4)
115
116	DUPONT DECOMPOSITION (ROE = Margin × Turnover × Leverage)
117	Period
118	Net Profit Margin (NI/Rev)	6.0%	3.6%	2.7%
119	Asset Turnover (Rev/TA)	1.4	1.4	1.5
120	Equity Multiplier (TA/Eq)	3.1	3.2	3.3
121	DuPont ROE (check)	25.2%	15.9%	12.9%
122	─ 5-Factor DuPont ─
123	Tax Burden (NI / PreTax)	0.8	0.7	0.8
124	Interest Burden (PreTax / EBIT)	0.9	0.6	0.8
125	EBIT Margin (EBIT / Rev)	8.7%	8.1%	4.2%
126	5-Factor DuPont ROE (check)
127
128	QUARTERLY TREND ANALYSIS
129
130	Revenue QoQ
131	Net Income QoQ
132	EPS QoQ
133	EBITDA QoQ
134	FCF QoQ
135
136	─ Year-over-Year (Quarter) ─
137	Revenue YoY-Q
138	Net Income YoY-Q
139	EPS YoY-Q
140	EBITDA YoY-Q
141	FCF YoY-Q
142
143	─ Quarterly Margins ─
144	Gross Margin (Q)
145	EBITDA Margin (Q)
146	Operating Margin (Q)
147	Net Margin (Q)
148	FCF Margin (Q)
149
150
151	COMPOUND ANNUAL GROWTH RATES (CAGR)
152	Metric
153	Revenue
154	EBITDA
155	Net Income
156	Diluted EPS
157	Free Cash Flow
158	Operating Cash Flow
159	Dividends / Share
160	Shares Outstanding
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167
168
169	RECONCILIATION CHECKS
170	Period
171	EBITDA ≠ EBIT+D&A? (should be 0)
172	NI ≠ PreTax-Tax? (non-zero = other inc/exp)
173	Equity = Assets - Liabilities? (should be 0)
174
175	VALUATION MULTIPLES (at period-end price)
176	Period
177	P/E (historical)
178	P/S (historical)
179	P/B (historical)
180	P/FCF (historical)
181	EV/EBITDA (historical)
182	EV/EBIT (historical)
183	FCF Yield (historical)
184	Earnings Yield (historical)
185	Dividend Yield (historical)

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1	Peer Comparison Data